| Abstrakt: |
The authors analyse the price convergence in EU-accession countries towards the European Union (EU), using panel-data calculations based on the International Comparison Program (ICP) and related data. Using aggregate data, they estimated the price level elasticity with respect to the GDP in PPP to be 0.7–0.9 percent. They also note that there may be additional sources of price level convergence such as terms-of-trade changes or price deregulations, which may lead to a higher pace of real exchange rate appreciation in the medium run. The average speed of real exchange rate appreciation is estimated at about 3 percent a year in a benchmark scenarios, and its implications for fulfilling the Maastricht criteria are discussed. The authors develop this study further by using commodity-level data and focusing on the adjustments in the structures of relative prices in the accession countries compared with the EU. They find that it may take about 10–25 years for the price structure in the accession countries to converge to the least developed EU countries. |
