Detail publikace

How to Anticipate Recession via Transport Indices

Autor: doc. PhDr. Ing. Ing. Petr Jakubík Ph.D. Ph.D., Seyit Kerimkhulle
Ing. Saida Teleu Ph.D., Seyit Kerimkhulle
Typ: Články v impaktovaných časopisech
Rok: 2017
Číslo: 0
ISSN / ISBN:
Publikováno v: Journal of Economics, Vol. 65, No. 10, pp. 972-990.
Místo vydání:
Klíčová slova: Cass Freight Index: Expenditures and Shipments, logistic growth, stochastic dynamics, economic growth
JEL kódy:
Citace:
Granty: GAČR 17-02509S - Nová finanční rizika v globálním prostředí nízkých úrokových sazeb
Abstrakt: This article focuses on transport industry development as a leading economic indicator. We investigate the dynamics of growth in the Cass Freight Index: Expenditures and Shipments, capturing the US transport industry, and apply a system of logistic models of population growth and competition to transport industry indices. We show that the constructed structure identifies the signs of a US economic downturn/recession well in advance.

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