Publication detail

Foretelling What Makes People Pay: Predicting the Results of Field Experiments on TV Fee Enforcement

Author(s): Mgr. Kateřina Chadimová , Jana Cahlíková Ph.D.
PhDr. Lubomír Cingl Ph.D., Jana Cahlíková Ph.D.
Type: Others
Year: 2019
Number: 15
ISSN / ISBN:
Published in: Working papers of the Max Planck Institute for Tax Law and Public Finance Series
Publishing place: Munich
Keywords: lab experiments, forecasting experimental results, field experiments, behavioral economics
JEL codes: C91, C92, C93, D03
Suggested Citation: Chadimova, Katerina and Cahlikova, Jana and Cingl, Lubomir, Foretelling What Makes People Pay: Predicting the Results of Field Experiments on TV Fee Enforcement (September 19, 2019). Working Paper of the Max Planck Institute for Tax Law and Public Finance No. 2019-15. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3456513 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3456513
Grants: GAUK 1372519
Abstract: One of the current challenges in field experimentation is creating an efficient design including individual treatments. Ideally, a pilot should be run in advance, but when a pilot is not feasible, any information about the effectiveness of potential treatments' to researchers is highly valuable. We run a laboratory experiment in which we forecast results of two large-scale field experiments focused on TV license fee collection to evaluate the extent to which it is possible to predict field experiment results using a non-expert subject pool. Our main result is that forecasters were relatively conservative regarding the absolute effectiveness of the treatments, but in most cases they correctly predicted the relative effectiveness. Our results suggest that, despite the artificiality of laboratory environments, forecasts generated there may provide valuable estimates of the effectiveness of treatments.
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