Economic Sentiment Indicators in Germany and their Predictive Power for Stock Market
| Author: | Bc. Robert Flasza |
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| Year: | 2009 - summer |
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| Work type: | Bachelors |
| Language: | English |
| Pages: | 45 |
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| Abstract: | German economic sentiment indicators (the Ifo, ZEW, PMI and ESIN) are known to improve predictions of the industrial production in Germany. I try to find theoretical background, why these indicators could possibly lead and improve forecasts of the stock market average DAX 30. Subsequently I test the Granger causality and perform out-of-sample forecasts of the DAX 30 by the Ifo and ZEW indicators. The forecasts are then compared. |
| Downloadable: | Bachelor Thesis of Flasza |
