Work detail

Housing bubble in China

Author: Mg. Lei Ba
Year: 2012 - summer
Leaders: Jiří Novák M.Sc., Ph.D., Deloitte Corporate Chair
Consultants:
Work type: Masters
MEF
Language: English
Pages: 56
Awards and prizes:
Link:
Abstract: This paper studies the housing price boom in recent decade since 2003 in China. The study focuses on four municipalities of China, Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin and Chongqing. Despite the fact that the whole country is suffering a sky soaring housing boom, this paper reveals a regional difference between two types of big cities. Better developed cities such as Beijing and Shanghai are experiencing greater volatility in the boom and economic fundamentals have less explanatory power to the price increases. Oppositely, less developed cities such as Tianjin and Chongqing have relatively sustainable housing prices which are better supported by economic fundamentals. Finally, this paper concludes that Beijing and Shanghai are experiencing a bubble in the housing prices, if the public expectation on economic growth cannot maintain, the bubble will burst.

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