Comparison of Factors Determining Czech Exports in Different Aggregations: Analysis by means of an Adjusted Gravity Model
|Author:||Bc. Eva Smotlachová|
|Year:||2014 - summer|
|Leaders:|| doc. Ing. Vladimír Benáček CSc.
|Work type:|| Bachelors
|Awards and prizes:||B.A. with distinction from the Dean of the Faculty of Social Sciences for an extraordinarily good bachelors diploma thesis.
B.A. with distinction from the Dean of the Faculty of Social Sciences for an excellent state-final examination performance.
|Abstract:||The aim of the thesis is to estimate determinants of Czech export. The key novelty of the research consists in estimating export flows at three different levels of aggregation
(total,machinery, automobiles) and a subsequent comparison of results. An augmented gravity model is implemented for the empirical research and estimated with the use of Ordinary least squares (including time or country dummies)
and Poisson pseudo maximum likelihood estimators . Consequently, we propose the comparison based on the Poisson estimates due to incontestable weaknesses of
the OLS estimator. Besides, we emphasize the importance of
identifying the panel data structure, as we have obtained
different results under the two structures (time series and cross - sectional). The predicted models reveal a substantial impact of home and partner’s GDP, distance and the European Union. Total and machinery export seem to follow
same tendencies, whereas the development of Czech automobile export differs and evolves on anidiosyncraticpath. Therefore, it does not coincide with a path expected by trade theories based on the assumption of perfect competitive markets.