Web search as an indicator of consumer confidence in the Visegrad Group
| Author: | Bc. Josef Matyáš |
|---|---|
| Year: | 2018 - summer |
| Leaders: | prof. PhDr. Ladislav Krištoufek Ph.D. |
| Consultants: | |
| Work type: | Bachelors |
| Language: | English |
| Pages: | 77 |
| Awards and prizes: | |
| Link: | https://is.cuni.cz/webapps/zzp/detail/191642/ |
| Abstract: | This thesis examines the potential of utilizing web search information to nowcast consumer con dence indicators in the Visegrad Group countries. Data capturing search volume in all available categories on Google search engine are analyzed and their potential to improve forecasting of contemporaneous values of consumer con dence indicators is assessed in augmented autoregressive models. Information from categories with the most potential is aggregated with utilization of principal component analysis and 3 sets of models are examined in out-of-sample setting through measures of predictive accuracy and DieboldMariano test. In-sample, models with Google data exhibited large improvements of t in all countries. Predictive potential in simulation of real-time setting was con rmed in Poland for categories related to automotive and consumer electronics. Limited potential of category related to news in business was found in Hungary. In Czech Republic and Slovakia, consistent nowcasting potential was not found for any category. |
