Home advantage in football during COVID-19 pandemic
|Autor:||Bc. Filip Šnejdr|
|Rok:||2022 - zimní|
|Vedoucí:|| Mgr. Petr Polák MSc. Ph.D.
|Typ práce:|| Bakalářská
|Abstrakt:||The aim of this thesis was to investigate the change of home advantage in football during the pandemic of COVID-19. The effect
of empty stadiums was analysed on data from top four European
leagues with the highest average attendance. Collected match statistics from seasons 2016/17-2018/19 played with spectators were compared with statistics from the season 2020/21 played almost completely without spectators. The results of Welch’s t-test showed that
the differences in the match statistics between home and away teams
varies across all the analysed leagues. The most substantial decline
during the season 2020/21 of home advantage was found in the English Premier league. The difference in shots on target significantly
dropped in all leagues, except German Bundesliga. The final part of
thesis analysed the accuracy of betting odds proposed on home team
victory. Brier score showed a significant drop in accuracy of betting
odds in the matches ended in home victory across all four leagues.
Afterwards, prediction accuracy of betting odds within equal sized
groups with similar level of probability was analysed. However, any
signs of systematically overrated betting odds proposed on home
teams victory were not found.