Work detail

Influence of COVID-19 pandemic on Czech floorball Superleague

Author: Bc. Martin Obuškevič
Year: 2022 - summer
Leaders: Mgr. Petr Polák MSc. Ph.D.
Work type: Bachelors
Language: Czech
Pages: 40
Awards and prizes:
Abstract: The aim of this thesis was to evaluate two hypotheses related to COVID-19 pandemic,
Czech floorball Superleague and corresponding betting odds. First hypothesis focuses
on idea, that COVID-19 restrictions, especially complete spectator ban reduced home
advantage and affected match results during 2020/2021 season. Second hypothesis
assumes the first one to be true and so inefficiency caused by inaccurate betting odds
appeared. For testing purposes seasons 2019/2020 and 2020/2021 were taken for
comparison, first one played in standard circumstances, second played under
coronavirus related restrictions. Statistical significance of differences in number of
home and away wins between given seasons has been proven, so sport betting market
efficiency testing started. (In)efficiency which was tested was split into statistical and
economic – statistical inefficiency implies betting odds not being objective estimators
of actual results; economic inefficiency creates space for systematic profit for bettor.
Statistical approaches like Brier score, grouping by probability and naïve betting
strategies were used. Both statistical and economic inefficiency has been proven
mostly for away team odds, unit bet strategy choosing away team during 2020/2021
season generated profit higher than 2300% of input. Overall, both hypotheses were
confirmed – COVID-19 pandemic reduced home advantage in Czech floorball
Superleague, which affected match results and bookmakers did not manage to
appropriately project this shock into their betting odds.
June 2023


Česká Spořitelna


Patria Finance