Influence of COVID-19 pandemic on Czech floorball Superleague
| Author: | Bc. Martin Obuškevič |
|---|---|
| Year: | 2022 - summer |
| Leaders: | Mgr. Petr Polák MSc. Ph.D. |
| Consultants: | |
| Work type: | Bachelors |
| Language: | Czech |
| Pages: | 40 |
| Awards and prizes: | |
| Link: | https://dspace.cuni.cz/handle/20.500.11956/175823 |
| Abstract: | The aim of this thesis was to evaluate two hypotheses related to COVID-19 pandemic, Czech floorball Superleague and corresponding betting odds. First hypothesis focuses on idea, that COVID-19 restrictions, especially complete spectator ban reduced home advantage and affected match results during 2020/2021 season. Second hypothesis assumes the first one to be true and so inefficiency caused by inaccurate betting odds appeared. For testing purposes seasons 2019/2020 and 2020/2021 were taken for comparison, first one played in standard circumstances, second played under coronavirus related restrictions. Statistical significance of differences in number of home and away wins between given seasons has been proven, so sport betting market efficiency testing started. (In)efficiency which was tested was split into statistical and economic – statistical inefficiency implies betting odds not being objective estimators of actual results; economic inefficiency creates space for systematic profit for bettor. Statistical approaches like Brier score, grouping by probability and naïve betting strategies were used. Both statistical and economic inefficiency has been proven mostly for away team odds, unit bet strategy choosing away team during 2020/2021 season generated profit higher than 2300% of input. Overall, both hypotheses were confirmed – COVID-19 pandemic reduced home advantage in Czech floorball Superleague, which affected match results and bookmakers did not manage to appropriately project this shock into their betting odds. |
