| Abstract: |
The paper deals with the issue of synchronisation of the Czech and the European business cycles. The importance of the cyclical synchronisation is discussed in the first part. In the next chapter the mutual synchronisation is empirically evaluated by the means of correlation coefficients between cyclical parts of GDP and industrial production time series. The insufficiency of the Czech-European synchronisation results from the comparison with the level of synchronisation among Eurozone countries. On the other hand, high dependency of the Czech cycle on the European one with the 7 quarters lag is found. Finally, dependency of the mutual synchronisation on the structural similarity, bilateral trade intensity and EMU membership is confirmed. On the base of these determinants the next possible evolution of the Czech-European synchronisation is discussed. |
