| Abstract: |
This bachelor thesis deals with the impact of real exchange rate volatility on real export of the Czech Republic. In the first part, theoretical aspects of this relationship are examined, explaining both - positive and negative – effects on bilateral and aggregate trade flows, as there is still no clear-cut conclusion about this impact. Furthermore, the issues of measuring exchange rate variability are discussed and the overview of different empirical results is provided as well. Further on, empirical data and econometric tools are employed to capture the relationship between real export and its main determinants for the case of Czech Republic in the past decade. After the brief theoretical introduction to time series econometrics, the particular export demand model is proposed and various cointegration techniques are explained and applied to examine the long-run equilibrium but also short-run dynamics. Some adjustments of the standard export demand model are made to capture specific conditions of the transforming economy of Czech Republic, such as monetary crisis in late nineties or change of exchange rate regime. In the last part of the work, estimation of the parameters of bilateral real export demand model for the case of Germany and Slovakia is provided to explain the differences using effective exchange rate comparing to bilateral exchange rates. |
