Yield Curve Dynamics: Regional Common Factor Model
|Author(s):|| PhDr. Jakub Seidler Ph.D., |
|Type:||IES Working Papers|
|ISSN / ISBN:|
|Published in:||IES Working Papers 17/2010|
|Keywords:||Dynamic Factor Model, Kalman Filter, Nelson-Siegel, State Space, Regional Yield Curve, Principal Component Analysis|
|JEL codes:||C51, C53, G17|
|Suggested Citation:||Šopov, B., Seidler, J. (2010). “Yield Curve Dynamics: Regional Common Factor Model” IES Working Paper 17/2010. IES FSV. Charles University.|
|Abstract:||In this paper, we focus on thorough yield curve modelling. We build on extended classical Nelson-Siegel model, which we further develop to accommodate unobserved regional common factors. We centre our discussion on Central European currencies’ yield curves: CZK, HUF, PLN and SKK.
We propose a model to capture regional dynamics purely based on state space formulation. The contribution of this paper is twofold: we examine regional yield curve dynamics and we quantify regional interdependencies amongst considered currencies’ yield curves. We conclude that the CZK yield curve possesses its own dynamics corresponding to country specific features, whereas other currencies’ yield curves are strongly influenced by the regional level, the regional slope factor or both.
WP 2010_17_Sopov, Seidler