Systemic Event Prediction by Early Warning System: An Application to the Czech Republic
| Author(s): | doc. PhDr. Ing. Ing. Petr Jakubík Ph.D. Ph.D., Mgr. Diana Žigraiová , |
|---|---|
| Type: | Articles in journals with impact factor |
| Year: | 2015 |
| Number: | 0 |
| ISSN / ISBN: | |
| Published in: | Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pp. 553–576. |
| Publishing place: | |
| Keywords: | Systemic risk, Financial stress, Financial crisis, Early warning indicators, Bayesian model averaging, Early warning system |
| JEL codes: | C33, E44, F47, G01 |
| Suggested Citation: | |
| Grants: | GACR 14-02108S The nexus between sovereign and bank crises |
| Abstract: | This work develops an early warning framework for assessing systemic risks and for predicting systemic events over the short horizon of six quarters and the long horizon of twelve quarters on the panel of 14 countries, both advanced and developing. First, we build Financial Stress Index to identify starting dates of systemic financial crises for each country in the panel. Second, early warning indicators for assessment and prediction of systemic risks are selected in a two-step approach; relevant prediction horizons for each indicator are found by a univariate logit model followed by the application of Bayesian model averaging to identify the most useful indicators. Finally, we estimate the constructed EWS over both horizons on the Czech data and find that the model over the long horizon slightly outperforms the EWS over the short horizon. For both horizons, out-of-sample probability estimates do not deviate substantially from their in-sample estimates indicating a good out-of-sample performance for the Czech Republic. |
