Czech Household Indebtedness and Credit Risk
|Author:||Mgr. Eva Varhoľová|
|Year:||2010 - summer|
|Leaders:|| doc. PhDr. Ing. Ing. Petr Jakubík Ph.D. Ph.D.
|Work type:|| Finance, Financial Markets and Banking
|Awards and prizes:|
|Abstract:||This thesis deals with an analysis of indebtedness of the Czech households and, as a consequence with the credit risk for banks and financial institutions. It points out the important role of the household sector in consumption and formation of savings. Main indicators of Czech households are discussed – the development of financial assets, liabilities and wealth. The thesis also provides comparison of the household sector in the Czech Republic with the other countries of the EU. Main objective of this thesis is construction of a model, which on the aggregated data for the Czech Republic captures the mutual dependency of non-performing loans provided to the households to the development of macroeconomic indicators.
Selected model of vector autoregression enables the analysis of mutual relations between the loans provided for the households, share of the non-performing loans, development of GDP, interest rates, unemployment, consumption expenditures and the house prices. The thesis concludes with the prediction of indebtedness of the Czech households and together with the results of stress tests provided by the Czech National Bank estimates the resistance of the financial system to the household credit risk.