Evaluation of macroeconomic forecasting accuracy
|Author:||Bc. Zdeněk Polák|
|Year:||2011 - summer|
|Leaders:|| PhDr. Ing. Jiří Skuhrovec PhD.
|Work type:|| Bachelors
|Awards and prizes:|
|Abstract:||This thesis deals with real GDP growth forecasting. It includes comparison of predictive performance of
OECD, IMF, European Commission, and Ministry of Finance of the Czech Republic in period between
2000 and 2010. Forecast errors for Central European countries are analyzed and compared to forecast
errors for G7 countries, which has never been done before. Organizations are benchmarked based on
summary statistics, comparison with nave forecast, and directional and sign accuracy.
Results of the analysis show that forecasts for expansion period are more accurate than forecasts for
recession period. Furthermore, hypothesis that forecasts for G7 countries are on average more accurate
than forecasts for Central European countries is not confirmed. This is particularly interesting for the
Ministry of Finance of the Czech Republic, which did not outperform other organizations in forecasts
for the Czech Republic and apparently has no comparative advantage in predicting economic
development of the Czech Republic.
|Downloadable:|| Bachelor Thesis of Zdeněk Polák