Work detail

Credit Euroization in the New EU Member States: Causes, Consequences and Some Lessons from Hungary

Author: Bc. Pavel Harnych
Year: 2012 - summer
Leaders: doc. Mgr. Tomáš Holub Ph.D.
Work type: Bachelors
Language: English
Pages: 89
Awards and prizes: B.A. with distinction from the Dean of the Faculty of Social Sciences for an excellent state-final examination performance and for an extraordinarily good bachelors diploma thesis.
Abstract: This thesis examines issues related to the sharp surge in credit denominated in foreign currency (FX) in the New EU Member States before the advent of the recent crisis. We commence with the introduction of some stylized facts as well as decisive determinants of credit euroization, including the exchange rate regime. Subsequently, the economic performance and soaring volume of non-performing loans during the crisis are found to be adversely related to previous FX credit growth. Furthermore, we discuss some challenges, which are faced by the monetary authority of a credit euroized economy. Next, we construct a distinctive index on currency mismatch adjusted for unhedged borrowers, which appears to be significantly associated with country risk premia. The final chapter is devoted to the recent materialization of vulnerabilities connected to FX lending in Hungary. The sensitivity of this economy to exchange rate movements is illustrated by strong correlation between CDS spread and relevant exchange rates. Additionally, we scrutinize the latest version of controversial government schemes designed to mitigate the negative balance sheet effect on households indebted in FX. A unique estimation of the long-term costs of a CHF mortgage in comparison to a forint mortgage loan is provided. The impact of government measures is incorporated as well, which are found to favor a group of FX debtors that would have been better-off than their peers borrowing in national currency even without any government support.
Downloadable: BT Harnych


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