What drives consumer confidence?
| Autor: | Mgr. Miroslava Mičáková |
|---|---|
| Rok: | 2015 - letní |
| Vedoucí: | prof. Roman Horváth Ph.D. |
| Konzultant: | |
| Typ práce: | Diplomová Finance, finanční trhy a bankovnictví |
| Jazyk: | Anglicky |
| Stránky: | 90 |
| Ocenění: | |
| Odkaz: | https://is.cuni.cz/webapps/zzp/detail/138450/ |
| Abstrakt: | In this thesis, we aim to analyze the determinants of consumer confidence in 17 EU countries. We propose that the following variables could have a significant effect on consumer confidence in the EU: GDP growth, inflation rate, interest rates, unemployment and stock market performance. We estimate heterogeneous panel data models in static and dynamic specifications. For the static specification, we apply Mean Group, Common Correlated Effect MG and Augmented MG estimators. We find evidence that most variables have a significant relationship with the consumer confidence indices with the coefficients exhibiting theoretically correct signs. We also specify an ARDL model and use 3 estimators (Mean Group, Pooled MG and Dynamic Fixed Effect) to examine the long- and short-term effects of selected variables on consumer confidence. We find that the long-run coefficients results are highly sensitive to the choice of the estimation method. However, the speed of adjustment term is significantly negative in all three estimators. We also report country-level regression results which suggest that the impact of the selected variables on consumer confidence varies accross countries. |
