Work detail

Export Decision Support Model for the Czech Republic

Author: Mgr. Carlos Couceiro Vlasak
Year: 2016 - summer
Leaders: † prof. Ing. Michal Mejstřík CSc.
Work type: Finance, Financial Markets and Banking
Language: English
Pages: 110
Awards and prizes:
Abstract: In this paper, an Export Decision Support Model applied to the Czech Republic is developed,
with the aim of finding export opportunities. The model functions using a filtering process in
which a stream of data composed of numerous socio-economic indicators representing the
world trade is analysed. For their construction, an extensive literature review was developed
relying strongly on a previous EDSM targeted as well for the Czech Republic, as at the
moment no explicit rule exist describing its appropriate composition. Then, if a given market,
determined by its associated matrix of indicators, fulfils the conditions of the model, then it is
retrieved as an export opportunity. After the model construction, it is supplied with two
streams of data, for 2010 and for 2014 and, the hypothesis that for both years the output is
equal is evaluated. With the intention to infer if the constructed model needs periodical
recalibrations for its appropriate use. Finally, a local sensitivity analysis is deployed
uncovering the behaviour of the different parameters of the model, a novel approach not yet
implemented in an EDSM tailor made for the Czech Republic.




Patria Finance
Česká Spořitelna