Effect of expectations on civil-war and its recurrence
| Autor: | Bc. Barbora Kořánová |
|---|---|
| Rok: | 2017 - letní |
| Vedoucí: | doc. PhDr. Martin Gregor Ph.D. |
| Konzultant: | |
| Typ práce: | Bakalářská |
| Jazyk: | Anglicky |
| Stránky: | 77 |
| Ocenění: | |
| Odkaz: | https://is.cuni.cz/webapps/zzp/detail/185504/ |
| Abstrakt: | The goal of this thesis is to shed light on the efect of expectations on the civil war and its recurrence. We use a dataset that covers over 90 countries over the period of 1970–2014. First, we introduce proxy-variables of expectations about the future presence of civil war into an econometric model of occurrence of civil conlict. Using the logistic regression, we ind that expectations have a signiicant inluence on the onset of civil conlict. Thereafter, we examine the impact of these expectations in post-conlict situations, which is smaller but non-negligible. Subsequently, we compare the features of postconlict countries, where civil war has repeated within 10 years and where it has not, via the Welch test. Finally, we describe conlict as a game with complete information and as a Bayesian game. In these we identify the role of expectations about opponent’s action and the role of changes in payofs. |
