Detail práce

Effect of expectations on civil-war and its recurrence

Autor: Bc. Barbora Kořánová
Rok: 2017 - letní
Vedoucí: doc. PhDr. Martin Gregor Ph.D.
Typ práce: Bakalářská
Jazyk: Anglicky
Stránky: 77
Abstrakt: The goal of this thesis is to shed light on the efect of expectations on the civil
war and its recurrence. We use a dataset that covers over 90 countries over
the period of 1970–2014. First, we introduce proxy-variables of expectations
about the future presence of civil war into an econometric model of occurrence
of civil conlict. Using the logistic regression, we ind that expectations
have a signiicant inluence on the onset of civil conlict. Thereafter, we examine
the impact of these expectations in post-conlict situations, which is
smaller but non-negligible. Subsequently, we compare the features of postconlict
countries, where civil war has repeated within 10 years and where
it has not, via the Welch test. Finally, we describe conlict as a game with
complete information and as a Bayesian game. In these we identify the role
of expectations about opponent’s action and the role of changes in payofs.


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