Islam and Economic Performance: A Meta-Analysis
|Author:||Mgr. Patrik Kratochvíla|
|Year:||2021 - summer|
|Leaders:|| prof. PhDr. Tomáš Havránek Ph.D.
|Work type:|| Finance, Financial Markets and Banking
|Awards and prizes:|
|Abstract:||The ongoing economic supremacy of the West has prompted debates on the
ability of non-Christian religions to generate economic growth. The academic
literature focusing on the Islamic religion o↵ers multiple answers, leaving the
matter unresolved and with no definite conclusion. Based on a quantitative survey of 315 estimates collected from 41 relevant academic studies, Islam exerts a
positive and statistically significant e↵ect on economic growth in 40% of cases,
a negative and statistically significant e↵ect in 10% of cases, and virtually zero
e↵ect in 50% of cases. Tests for publication bias indicate slightly preferential
reporting against negative estimates. When I correct for this bias, I find that
the mean e↵ect of Islam on economic growth is positive but economically small.
I also construct 79 moderator variables capturing methodological heterogeneity
among the primary studies and apply the method of Bayesian model averaging
to deal with model uncertainty in meta-analysis. The analysis shows that the
heterogeneity in the results is primarily driven by di↵erences in the sample composition and the choice of control variables, and to a lesser extent by estimation
characteristics and proxies for Islam employed.