Work detail

Transition to emission-free personal transportation in the Czech Republic

Author: Bc. Daniel Kessler
Year: 2022 - summer
Leaders: Mgr. Milan Ščasný PhD.
Work type: Bachelors
Language: English
Pages: 56
Awards and prizes:
Abstract: What is the future of electric vehicles? Road transportation significantly contributes to undesired emissions which can cause health issues and environmental damage. Replacing conventional vehicles with electric vehicles can be an
adequate solution. This thesis aims to forecast the level of adoption of electric passenger vehicles in the Czech Republic until 2050, using monthly vehicle
registry data from 2009 to 2022. Using the Bass diffusion model, we estimate
innovation and imitation parameters to forecast (the first) incremental and cumulative adoption of battery electric and, partly, of plug-in hybrid vehicles,
until 2050. We rely on an exogenously pre-defined passenger vehicle fleet since
the approach based on endogenously determined stock fails to provide a credible forecast. Due to the low adoption rate of battery electric vehicles before
2016, we examine how using more recent data or calibration of the innovation
parameter may improve the forecasting model. We also model the replacements
of battery electric vehicles after their retirement to derive a total number of
new registrations. Additional forecasts are performed for different fleet sizes
and retirement ages. We have found that the calibration-based forecast provides a larger share of battery electric vehicles until 2030 (329,024), compared
to the forecast based on more recent data (267,421), while both approaches
provide similar forecasts after 2030. The forecasts of the number of battery
electric vehicles are compared to other predictions based on other methods
February 2023




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